Shoppers on their way to the mall are increasingly noticing prices at the gas station — and they’re not liking what they see.
March consumer confidence fell 6 percent from last month, slipping back to levels last seen in December, according to the University of Michigan’s closely watched Surveys of Consumers.
“Declines were seen across age and political party,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers. “Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran conflict, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment.”
Hsu said consumers’ short-run economic outlook “plunged” 14 percent and that year-ahead expected personal finances sank by 10 percent, although long-run expectations were more subdued.
Consumers — and the world — have been holding their breath since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran Feb. 28, sparking a war that has slowed the global flow of oil and stoked uncertainty.
About a third of the survey of consumer sentiment was completed before the war started. And Hsu said consumers interviewed after fighting began revealed higher inflation expectations.
Consumers expect inflation to rise to 3.8 percent for the year ahead, up from 3.4 percent in February, the largest jump in almost a year. By comparison consumers pegged inflation at 2.3 percent to 3 percent in the two years before the pandemic.
As read in the Consumer Price Index, inflation rose 2.4 percent in February and has not topped 3 percent since May 2024.
While uncertainty has ratcheted up, shoppers and brands seem to still be watching and testing the wind.
A gallon of regular gas is selling for $3.98 on average, according to AAA. That’s $1 more than a month earlier, with a price of $4 seen as psychologically important to consumers.
So far, at least, the longer-term outlook is holding.
The National Retail Federation recently forecast that U.S. retail sales would rise 4.4 percent to $5.6 trillion this year, up from the average of 3.6 percent over the past decade.
But Mark Mathews, chief economist of the NRF, did say that confidence was not expected to improve significantly.
“While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead,” Mathews said this month.
Even if household finances hold despite price increases, the dynamic — with higher gas prices mixing with tariff increases and other macro trends — makes business harder all around.
Lululemon Athletica Inc., for instance, is working on a comeback and looking for a chief executive officer.
The plan is to build back which includes easing off on discounting, improving the product and driving full-price sales.
Sales for the brand rose 6 percent last year, in constant currencies and excluding an extra week in the retail calendar in 2024. This year, Lululemon is looking for revenues to grow 2 percent to 4 percent to a range of $11.35 billion to $11.5 billion — with a 1 percent to 3 percent decline in the U.S.
Asked on a conference call about shopper traffic and “high-value” consumers, interim co-chief executive officer and chief financial officer Meghan Frank said she needed “a little more time just to understand what’s going on with the high-value guests.”
“We’re seeing great green shoots on some of the new product launches,” Frank said. “And I would expect that extends to that guest as well. So we’ll share more on what we’re seeing as it progresses.”
Things would likely progress a little quicker — for Lululemon and everyone else — if the idea of an “oil crisis” wasn’t in the air and gas prices remained in check.
